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UEFA Champions League: Lille vs Borussia Dortmund
Kickoff Time: 2025-03-13 01:45(HKT)
Source:REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen
Lille is currently fifth in Ligue 1, 21 points behind league leaders Paris Saint-Germain, and has lost hope of winning the title. Their focus will shift to cup competitions. In the last league match, the team made some rotations, with key center-back Aissa Mandi, main defensive midfielder Ngal’ayel Mukau, the third most valuable player Angel Gomes, and Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappe’s brother Ethan Mbappe all not starting. From the first leg against Borussia Dortmund, in the face of their wing breakthroughs and high pressing tactics, head coach Bruno Genesio aimed to strengthen physical confrontations, achieving an impressive 71% success rate in duels throughout the match. After regaining possession, Lille looked to create threats through quick transitions and set pieces, relying on forward Jonathan David to deliver the decisive blow. Stats indicate that this strategy was successful, as Lille had higher numbers in key areas such as shots, possession, and passing accuracy compared to Dortmund, who were playing at home. In this match, Lille is expected to stick to the tactics from the first leg.
Borussia Dortmund changed coaches in early February, inviting former Bayern Munich coach Niko Kovac to take over. Under his management, the team has played eight matches, achieving three wins, two draws, and three losses, which is rather mediocre, indicating they are still in a period of adjustment. The main issue is Dortmund’s weak midfield; after main defensive midfielder Felix Nmecha was injured, they lacked a strong defensive player, forcing Marcel Sabitzer to take on a deeper role. However, he does not possess outstanding distribution or pace control abilities, nor does he have exceptional skills or awareness as a defensive midfielder. In the first leg, the starting trio of Sabitzer, Pascal Gros, and Julian Brandt was a mistake, as they lacked complementarity, speed, and individual ball progression ability. Especially Brandt, who played awkwardly as the midfield core, managed only 19 passes in 83 minutes, with just nine successful, resulting in a low passing accuracy of 47%. With a lack of strength from the attacking midfield and no support from the defensive midfield, this greatly impacts the team’s potential. Moreover, the team has only one traditional center forward, Serhou Guirassy, who has scored 10 goals in the Champions League and is a strong contender for the golden boot. However, he is currently observing Ramadan and cannot eat from sunrise to sunset, which severely affects his competitive form.
In this season’s Champions League, Dortmund has achieved a record of six wins and one draw against teams outside the top five leagues; however, they have only managed one draw and three losses against teams from the top five leagues, reflecting their insufficient strength and lack of the caliber that saw them finish as runners-up last season. Midfield control and creativity in positional play are Dortmund’s weakest links, and against a physically strong Lille side, Dortmund may find themselves with little chance of victory.
Lille’s Last 5 Games: WDLWW
25-03-09 Lille 1-0 Montpellier
25-02-05 Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille
25-03-02 Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 Lille
25-02-23 Lille 2-1 AS Monaco
25-02-17 Rennes 0-2 Lille
Borussia Dortmund’s Last 5 Games: LDWWD
25-03-08 Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Augsburg
25-03-05 Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille
25-03-01 St. Pauli 0-2 Borussia Dortmund
25-02-23 Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Union Berlin
25-02-20 Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Sporting CP
Head To Head Record:
25-03-05 Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille
Prediction: Lille to win or Draw