Sabasports Match Preview
Brazilian Serie A: Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Kickoff Time: 2025-10-17 06:00 (HKT)
Source: REUTERS/ THIAGO BERNARDES
Gremio, who finished as runners-up in the 2023 Brazilian Serie A, has seen a noticeable decline in overall strength due to the sale of key players. Last season, the team only managed a 14th-place finish, finishing just three points above the relegation zone. This season, Gremio’s performance has not improved, and they currently trail sixth-placed Bahia by 10 points, making it highly unlikely for them to qualify for next season’s Copa Libertadores. In their last league match, the team suffered an away defeat to RB Bragantino, managing only five shots throughout the game, indicating a significant slump in their offensive performance. For this match, Gremio is severely impacted by injuries and suspensions. Key players such as central defender Walter Kannemann, left-back Marlon, and winger Alysson are all suspended, while top scorer Martin Braithwaite is sidelined due to achilles tendon surgery. Additionally, defensive midfielder Mathias Villasanti, the team’s second-most valuable player, is out with a knee injury. Essentially, half of Gremio’s regular starting lineup is unavailable, making it impossible for them to field their strongest squad.
Sao Paulo, a traditional powerhouse in the Brazilian league, finished sixth last season and is currently competing in the Copa Libertadores. Unfortunately, they were eliminated in the quarter-finals by Ecuadorian giants LDE de Quito. With only league matches remaining, Sao Paulo’s sole objective is to secure a spot in next season’s Copa Libertadores. In their last league game, Sao Paulo took a two-goal lead against league leaders Palmeiras but failed to hold on, ultimately losing 2-3. Despite the defeat, the statistics from the match highlighted positive aspects of Sao Paulo’s performance. The team registered 12 shots, five of which were on target, resulting in two goals, demonstrating efficiency in their attacking play. In their recent two league matches, both Gonzalo Tapia and Luciano have scored consecutively, indicating that both players are in excellent form. In the first leg of this fixture, Sao Paulo defeated Gremio 2-1, dominating the match with 60% possession and 20 shots, while Gremio managed only three attempts.
In terms of total squad value, there is little difference between the two teams – Gremio’s squad is valued at €86.45 million, while Sao Paulo’s is valued at €88.85 million. However, considering Gremio’s severe injury and suspension issues, the gap in strength between the two teams is expected to widen. In this encounter, Sao Paulo is unlikely to miss the opportunity to secure points away from home.
Gremio’s Last 5 Games: LDWDW
25-10-05 RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio
25-10-02 Santos FC 1-1 Gremio
25-09-28 Gremio 3-1 Vitoria
25-09-25 Gremio 1-1 Botafogo FR
25-09-22 Internacional 2-3 Gremio
Sao Paulo’s Last 5 Games: LWLLL
25-10-06 Sao Paulo 2-3 Palmeiras
25-10-03 Fortaleza 0-2 Sao Paulo
25-09-30 Sao Paulo 0-1 Ceara
25-09-26 Sao Paulo 0-1 LDU de Quito
25-09-22 Santos FC 1-0 Sao Paulo
Head-To-Head Record
25-05-18 Sao Paulo 2-1 Gremio
24-12-02 Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo
24-07-18 Sao Paulo 1-0 Gremio
23-10-22 Sao Paulo 3-0 Gremio
23-06-05 Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo
Prediction: Sao Paulo to win or Draw