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2026 UEFA World Cup Qualifier: Finland vs Poland
Kickoff Time: 2025-06-11 02:45 (HKT)
Source:REUTERS/Lehtikuva
In Finnish football history, they have never qualified for the World Cup finals. The team’s last appearance in the main stage of a major tournament was at UEFA Euro 2020, but they failed to advance from the group stage. In last year’s UEFA Nations League, Finland’s performance fell short of expectations as they were in League B but suffered six consecutive defeats, resulting in their relegation to League C. Following this, the team underwent a coaching change, appointing Danish coach Jacob Friis. Prior to this, Friis had only coached Denmark’s U19 national team, lacking both reputation and experience, and media predictions were not optimistic about his tenure. This proved true, as in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Finland has managed only four points after three matches. They narrowly defeated Malta, the weakest team in the group, by one goal, failing to secure more goal differences, leaving them with a severe qualification scenario. Based on the current squad list, Finland’s star power is relatively low, featuring more older players. The total market value of the entire team is only 23 million euros, which falls far short of Jakub Kiwior, the Polish central defender, whose market value alone stands at 28 million euros. Key players such as Joel Pohjanpalo, Glen Kamara, who play in Serie B and Saudi Arabia respectively, are joined by Teemu Pukki, the all-time top scorer for Finland, who misses out due to a knee injury. Tactically speaking, Finland has recently adopted a 4-3-3 formation to match opponents. Compared to the previous 4-2-3-1 setup, while there may be some improvement in midfield and offensive capabilities with this new formation, Finland’s players generally lack advanced skills. Although the 4-3-3 formation offers more attacking opportunities, the forwards are unable to convert these chances into goals, exposing the team’s inefficiency in front of the net.
Poland, a regular participant in major tournaments, is often referred to as the “qualification king” by the media. However, with the aging of key players like Robert Lewandowski, Poland’s results have declined. At UEFA Euro 2024, Poland failed to advance from the group stage. In the UEFA Nations League concluded last year, Poland’s performance was disappointing as they finished at the bottom of League A, leading to their relegation to League B. From the current squad list, Poland has undergone significant changes. Midfielder Oskar Repka received his first call-up, while midfielder Piotr Zielinski has returned to the team. Kamil Piatkowski, Kacper Urbanski, and Robert Lewandowski did not make the cut from the previous call-up. In a friendly match against Moldova, veteran Kamil Grosicki played in what turned out to be his farewell game for the national team, and Poland won 2-0, allowing the players to gain valuable experience amid a positive atmosphere. Recently, Poland’s offensive strategy has been centered around long passes targeting spaces behind the opponent’s defense. Usually, the ball is initiated from the defense line by central defenders Jan Bednarek or Jakub Kiwior. When holding the ball, if they prepare for long passes, striker Krzysztof Piatecz is already positioned at midfield to create space for wingers to run through. Defensively, Poland employs a five-defender and three-midfielder region-based system, often forces opponents towards the sidelines. There, they use their physical advantages to intercept or tackle the ball. This defensive system is highly effective against teams like Finland that rely heavily on flanking plays and crosses.
Poland has a one-day advantage over Finland in terms of preparation time, giving them a clear edge in terms of physical condition. Already disadvantaged in terms of strength, Finland risks falling into a passive defensive position if they lose their physical advantage. It is expected that Poland will not miss the opportunity to seize three points away from home.
Finland’s Last 5 Games：LDWLL
25-06-08 Finland 0-2 Netherlands
25-03-25 Lithuania 2-2 Finland
25-03-22 Malta 0-1 Finland
24-11-18 Finland 0-2 Greece
24-11-15 Ireland 1-0 Finland
Poland’s Last 5 Games：WWWLL
25-06-07 Poland 2-0 Moldova
25-03-25 Poland 2-0 Malta
25-03-22 Poland 1-0 Lithuania
24-11-19 Poland 1-2 Scotland
24-11-16 Portugal 5-1 Poland
Head To Head Record:
20-10-08 Poland 5-1 Finland
16-03-27 Poland 5-0 Finland
10-05-29 Poland 0-0 Finland
08-02-02 Poland 1-0 Finland
07-09-12 Finland 0-0 Poland
Prediction: Poland to win