Global investment bank Goldman Sachs released its World Cup forecast on May 29, putting Spain as the favourite with a 26% winning chance, followed by France (19%), Argentina (14%), Brazil (8%) and England at just 5%.
The forecast combines Elo ratings and Goldman’s proprietary statistical model. Originally designed for chess, Elo ranks football sides based on match results, pre-match win odds and home-and-away edges, regarded by many experts as more credible than FIFA rankings. As of May 30, top five Elo nations are Spain, Argentina, France, England and Brazil.
Economist Jan Hatzius built the model with nearly 20,000 international fixtures since 1978, including historical results, squad rankings, scoring form, mentality, recent momentum and geographical factors. Historically strong attacking sides tend to thrive while defending champions usually struggle, hurting Argentina’s title odds.
However, the model ignores key variables such as squad depth, fitness issues, manager experience, Yamal’s injury and French players’ Champions League form.
Goldman’s semi-final prediction sees Spain beat France and Argentina overcome Brazil, with Spain defeating Argentina in the New York final on July 19.
Despite high Elo ranking, England’s poor World Cup history plus potential high-altitude clash with Mexico in Mexico City limits its prospects; the Three Lions are tipped to be knocked out by Brazil in last 16.