Sabasports Match Preview
Bundesliga: St. Pauli vs Hamburg SV
Kickoff Time: 2026-01-24 03:30 (HKT)
St. Pauli is deep in the relegation zone, four points behind Augsburg in 15th place, facing immense pressure to avoid relegation. From the season’s trend, the team’s biggest issue is the imbalance between attack and defense. Currently, they have only scored 16 goals, the fewest in the league, while conceding 31 goals. In the last 15 rounds, they have managed a clean sheet only once, against Mainz, who are also in the relegation zone. Fortunately, after the winter break adjustments, the team’s attacking performance has improved, recently scoring against traditional strong teams such as Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg. Moreover, both games saw them concede late goals, resulting in losses, showcasing their strong will to fight for survival. In the last match, St. Pauli performed very actively in defense, achieving 12 successful tackles, 13 effective interceptions, and 25 clearances. Offensively, they had 9 shots with 5 on target, converting into 2 goals, indicating an increase in attacking efficiency. During this period, midfielder Eric Smith contributed 2 assists, while James Sands scored his first goal since joining the team, boosting both players’ confidence.
Hamburg SV, newly promoted to the league, is currently 5 points above St. Pauli, but their relegation situation is not optimistic. Looking at the season’s trend, Hamburg SV has shown poor performance away from home, with only 2 draws and 6 losses, marking the lowest points rate in the league. They have scored just 4 goals on the road, making their away attacking power the weakest. Recent match analysis indicates that Hamburg SV was ill-prepared during the winter break. In their last match against Borussia Mönchengladbach at home, they had as many as 25 shots and 12 on target but failed to convert any into goals, showcasing poor attacking performance. To address the shortcomings in their attack, the team has loaned 1.92-meter tall striker Damion Downs from Southampton F.C. in the Championship, who has started in the last two rounds but has not integrated well with the team’s tactics and has struggled to coordinate with teammates. For instance, in the last match, Downs touched the ball only 19 times in 80 minutes, the least among starting players, clearly showing he has not adapted to the rhythm of the Bundesliga.
The backdrop of this match is a city derby, with both teams in competition with each other. In the first round of encounters, St. Pauli defeated Hamburg SV away, handing their city rivals their first loss of the season. This demonstrates that St. Pauli has the advantage in terms of relegation experience, attacking stability, and psychological edge. In this matchup, it is believed that St. Pauli can capitalize on their home advantage to secure points.
St. Pauli’s Last 5 Games: LLDWD
26-01-17 Borussia Dortmund 3-2 St. Pauli
26-01-15 VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 St. Pauli
25-12-21 Mainz 0-0 St. Pauli
25-12-13 St. Pauli 2-1 FC Heidenheim 1846
25-12-06 FC Cologne 1-1 St. Pauli
Hamburg SV‘s Last 5 Games: DLDLW
26-01-17 Hamburg SV 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
26-01-10 SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburg SV
25-12-20 Hamburg SV 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
25-12-13 TSG Hoffenheim 4-1 Hamburg SV
25-12-07 Hamburg SV 3-2 Werder Bremen
Head-to-Head Record
25-08-30 Hamburg SV 0-2 St. Pauli
24-05-04 Hamburg SV 1-0 St. Pauli
23-12-02 St. Pauli 2-2 Hamburg SV
23-04-22 Hamburg SV 4-3 St. Pauli
22-10-15 St. Pauli 3-0 Hamburg SV
Prediction: St. Pauli win or draw