Sabasports Match Preview
Bundesliga: Stuttgart vs St. Pauli
Kickoff Time: 2025-09-20 02:30 (HKT)
Source: REUTERS/Heiko Becker
VfB Stuttgart, last season’s DFB-Pokal champions, is set to compete in the UEFA Europa League group stage this season. Surprisingly, the club sold their star player, Nick Woltemade, just before the transfer window closed. This move resulted in a net profit of €71.9 million for Stuttgart during the summer transfer window, making them the most profitable club in the Bundesliga. However, it also significantly weakened the team’s overall strength. Currently, Stuttgart has a league record of one win and two losses, indicating they are in a rebuilding phase. On a positive note, newly signed forward Tiago Tomas and midfielder Chema Andres have already integrated into the team’s tactics and have both scored in the league. Statistically, Stuttgart adheres to a possession-based style of play, averaging 60% possession per game – the third highest in the league – with an 87% pass success rate, also ranking third. In this match, Stuttgart is expected to continue their possession-based approach, patiently seeking opportunities to score.
St. Pauli was the champions of the 2. Bundesliga in the 2023-24 season. Last season, they narrowly avoided relegation by finishing just three points above the drop zone. This season, they have started with two wins and one draw, including a draw against traditional powerhouse Borussia Dortmund, demonstrating strong form. Despite their underdog success, St. Pauli has a critical weakness: they have used the same starting lineup in all three league matches, making it easy for opponents to study and counter their tactics. Statistically, St. Pauli averages 14 fouls per game, the third highest in the league. Clearly, the team relies heavily on fouling to disrupt their opponents’ rhythm, even at the cost of conceding free kicks. Offensively, they depend largely on the individual ability of forward Andreas Hountondji. In the first three league matches, Hountondji scored in each game but also missed a penalty, showing inconsistency.
St. Pauli’s unbeaten run might create an illusion of strength, but this is not the case. The total market value of St. Pauli’s first-team squad is only €51.65 million, among the lowest in the Bundesliga, while Stuttgart’s squad is valued at €311 million – the fifth highest in the league and approximately six times that of St. Pauli. This highlights the significant gap in quality between the two teams. Given St. Pauli’s predictable lineup and one-dimensional tactics, Stuttgart is expected to devise targeted strategies and seize the opportunity to secure all three points at home.
VfB Stuttgart’s Last 5 Games: LWDLL
25-09-13 Freiburg 3-1 VfB Stuttgart
25-08-30 VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Borussia Monchengladbach
25-08-27 Eintracht Braunschweig 3-3 VfB Stuttgart (ET 1-1, PEN 7-8)
25-08-23 Union Berlin 2-1 VfB Stuttgart
25-08-17 VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Bayern Munich
St. Pauli’s Last 5 Games: WWDDL
25-09-14 St. Pauli 2-1 Augsburg
25-08-30 Hamburger SV 0-2 St. Pauli
25-08-24 St. Pauli 3-3 Borussia Dortmund
25-08-16 Eintracht Norderstedt 0-0 St. Pauli (ET 0-0, PEN 2-3)
25-05-17 St. Pauli 0-2 VfL Bochum
Head-To-Head Record
25-05-30 St. Pauli 0-1 Vfb Stuttgart
24-12-21Vfb Stuttgart 0-1 St. Pauli
20-02-01 St. Pauli 1-1 Vfb Stuttgart
19-08-17 Vfb Stuttgart 2-1 St. Pauli
17-01-29 St. Pauli 0-1 Vfb Stuttgart
Prediction: Vfb Stuttgart to win