Sabasports Match Preview
Premier League: Everton vs Newcastle United
Kickoff Time: 2024-10-06 00:30 (HKT)
Source: NURPHOTO/MI News
Everton came from behind to defeat Crystal Palace 2-1 in the last match, securing their first Premier League victory since May 11. Head coach Sean Dyche has finally overcome the crisis of being sacked. There are two main reasons for Everton’s first league win: first, the Friedkin Group successfully acquired a majority stake in the club, repaying all of the team’s debts and promising to invest heavily in new signings during the winter transfer window, which greatly boosted the team’s morale. Second, key defensive players returned from injury. Center-back Jarrad Branthwaite made his comeback after groin surgery, and the performances of goalkeeper Jordan Pickford and captain James Tarkowski rebounded, giving Everton a solid defensive trio that resembles last season’s team, which had the fourth-fewest goals conceded in the league. In fact, Everton’s attacking performance has also been quite good, with key players Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Dwight McNeil showing high attacking efficiency; the reason for their win-less streak was primarily due to defensive instability. Statistics show that this season, Everton has dropped seven league points while in a leading position. In this match, Everton is expected to strengthen their attacking coordination and pressing, aiming to break through Newcastle United’s defense with high pressing and quick counterattacks.
Newcastle United started the season with four wins, three draws, and one loss. Although their results are not bad, all four victories were by a narrow one-goal margin, lacking convincing performances. For example, in the midweek EFL Cup match, Newcastle fielded their main players at home but failed to score from open play despite having 18 shots, ultimately winning only through a penalty against League Two side AFC Wimbledon. This highlights the team’s low attacking efficiency and poor performance in build-up play. It is worth noting that Eddie Howe is not known for making effective in-game adjustments; his tactical approach can be somewhat rigid. When quick counterattacks and long ball tactics fail to yield results, the team’s overall strength diminishes significantly. Additionally, there is an objective reason for Newcastle’s low attacking efficiency: tall striker Alexander Isak is absent due to a toe fracture. Without Isak’s aerial support in the box, it becomes difficult for the team to organize second attacks when the ball arrives in the penalty area. For instance, in the last league match, Anthony Gordon had 14 touches in the first half but only managed to enter the penalty area once and did not have any shooting opportunities before halftime. With attacking players out of form, it is expected that Newcastle will focus on physical battles in midfield during this match, even resorting to fouls to disrupt the opponent’s attacking rhythm and alleviate pressure on their defense.
Newcastle’s tactics place high demands on player stamina, and the impact of playing twice a week will be felt towards the end of matches. Everton is currently on an upward trajectory due to positive news. As a result, the gap in strength between the two teams will narrow. Considering the influence of home advantage, it would be wise to support Everton in securing points in this match.
Everton’s Last 5 Games: WDDLL
24-09-28 Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace
24-09-21 Leicester City 1-1 Everton
24-09-18 Everton 1-1 Southampton (PEN 5-6)
24-09-15 Aston Villa 3-2 Everton
24-08-31 Everton 2-3 Bournemouth
Newcastle United’s Last 5 Games: WDLWW
24-10-02 Newcastle United 1-0 AFC Wimbledon
24-09-28 Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City
24-09-21 Fulham 3-1 Newcastle United
24-09-15 Wolves 1-2 Newcastle United
24-09-01 Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur
Head To Head Record:
24-04-03 Newcastle United 1-1 Everton
23-12-08 Everton 3-0 Newcastle United
23-04-28 Everton 1-4 Newcastle United
22-10-20 Newcastle United 1-0 Everton
22-03-08 Everton 1-0 Newcastle United
Prediction: Everton to win or Draw