Sabasports Match Preview
2. Bundesliga: Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel
Kickoff Time: 2025-08-02 19:00 (HKT)
Source: REUTERS/Andrew Couldridge
From finishing seventh in the 23-24 season to finishing fourth, just three points away from the promotion playoff, Paderborn has been on an upward trend. This season, Paderborn has undergone several changes. First, the appointment of a new head coach, Ralf Kettemann, a 38-year-old academy-style young manager. Last season, Kettemann coached the Karlsruher SC U19 team and led them to the German Youth Cup final. In terms of coaching style, Kettemann is known for developing youth talents, building team cohesion, and maintaining a neutral stance in interpersonal interactions, striving for balance. In the summer transfer window, Kettemann didn’t demand the signing of star players or bring in his own loyalists. Instead, he accepted the previous coach’s assistant staff and mainly brought in young, less-known players. Additionally, Paderborn has sold key players such as left midfielder Aaron Zehnter, who played 31 matches and contributed three goals and 11 assists last season, and forward Ilyas Ansah, who made 33 appearances and scored six goals with four assists. Overall, Paderborn’s attacking strength has declined slightly, but they have retained their strong defensive core from last season. From pre-season friendly matches, Kettemann has continued to use the 3-4-3 formation that was previously established, focusing on midfield defense and creating scoring opportunities through quick counterattacks and precise set-piece tactics.
Holstein Kiel was runners-up in the 2023-24 2. Bundesliga season and returned to the second tier after one season of “re-experiencing” the Bundesliga. Although the club kept their successful promotion coach M. Rapp, the starting XI has gone through a major overhaul. Players such as forward Shuto Machino (11 goals, two assists), defensive midfielder Nicolai Remberg (26 starts), center-back Timo Becker (28 starts), center-back Colin Kleine-Bekel (24 starts), midfielder Lewis Holtby (25 appearances), and backup strikers Fiete Arp and Benedikt Pichler have all moved on. On the transfer market, besides the 34-year-old midfielder Stefan Schwab, other signings are mostly young players. This means that both attack and defense will face a rebuilding phase, and overall team strength has dropped significantly. For example, in their most recent friendly match against a 3. Bundesliga side, Holstein Kiel only managed a narrow 1-0 win thanks to a late goal, clearly showing that the players are not at their best.
In general, teams that are relegated from the Bundesliga often struggle to adapt quickly to the pace of the 2. Bundesliga due to team cohesion issues. Looking at examples such as Cologne and Darmstadt from the 2023-24 season, Schalke 04 and Hertha Berlin from the 2022-23 season, all of them lost their first match back in the 2. Bundesliga. With a major personnel overhaul, Holstein Kiel is expected to make many passing mistakes, and Paderborn is unlikely to miss the chance to take all three points at home.
Paderborn‘s Last 5 Games: LWWDW
25-05-18 Karlsruher SC 3-0 Paderborn
25-05-10 Paderborn 2-1 Magdeburg
25-05-03 Schalke 04 0-2 Paderborn
25-04-26 Paderborn 1-1 Elversberg
25-04-19 1. FC Nuremberg 2-3 Paderborn
Holstein Kiel‘s Last 5 Games: LLWWD
25-05-17 Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Holstein Kiel
25-05-10 Holstein Kiel 1-2 Freiburg
25-05-04 Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel
25-04-26 Holstein Kiel 4-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Head-To-Head Record
24-02-17 Paderborn 0-4 Holstein Kiel
23-09-02 Holstein Kiel 2-1 Paderborn
23-02-25 Holstein Kiel 1-1 Paderborn
22-08-20 Paderborn 7-2 Holstein Kiel
22-03-05 Holstein Kiel 3-4 Paderborn
Prediction: Paderborn to win